Week 9: Colts @ Steelers

NFL Record: 29-19 (+7.65x)

👋 Note…this is the free pick for Week 9. If you would like to read the other picks and write-ups this week, upgrade to become a full member here.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 (even)

I am betting into the number and a subjective angle here. I’ll start with the number. I believe the Packers are the second best team in the league (behind the Chiefs). They closed -2.5 at Pittsburgh on Sunday night. The Colts are now -3 (-122). I think that is giving them too much respect and it is interesting to see them as the most bet/picked side of the week so far. To supplement this thought, I have noticed two things with the Colts in watching their games. The first is that their secondary allows a lot of space. Every game they play, there are guys running open downfield. As great as their defense has been, they have been aided by some weaker quarterbacks on the schedule. Last week the Titans put up 7.0 yards per play in the 1H. Ward missed some big throws that could have made that number even bigger. Rodgers can and will make those throws. The second is their schedule. Seven of their eight wins have been indoors. This offense looks incredible, but I do wonder if getting outdoors playing on grass slows it down and impacts timing like we have seen with the Cowboys this season. The turf will not be quite as bad as it has been because the Panthers did not have a Saturday home game, but, the field conditions have been a concern all season even after re-sodding. While I have done well fading the Steelers overrated defense, I do wonder if this is the game where we finally see the defense show up perhaps driven by the added motivation of the game being dedicated to the 2005 championship team. This number just feels worth betting after the back to back primetime losses contrasted with the Colts blowing bad teams out.

Side note. I don’t know quite what to make of the early week betting movement. Warren Sharp published a well read and engaged article about Tomlin and the Steelers struggling against good play callers, which Steichen absolutely is. I enjoyed reading it. The price has been in place for 5 days now. While I would not consider that a “release”, I do wonder the impact it had on the number? The only release I have seen this week from a service has been on Pittsburgh and there has been little movement.