Season Record: 20-19 (-0.75x)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Chicago Bears Over 46.5

Let’s keep going with Bears overs. Chicago closed at this price against Minnesota and on the road in Seattle. The Buccaneers sit in the same range defensively, but how real is their performance so far? They faced Penix (in a downpour), Young, Rogers, Love (with offensive injuries), Wentz and Watson. The win and performance against Prescott was very impressive, but the majority here has been against weak competition. Chicago has proven to be anything but with Williams under center. I don’t think Tampa Bay deserves to be priced at the same level as Minnesota and Seattle against this Bears offense.

There are still two angles that I love here as well.

The first is what I mentioned yesterday and multiple times so far this season. The Bears with Williams have never been pressed on offense. Last night against Seattle they front ran the entire game - again. We still have to go back to the first quarter of Week 1 to see them playing from a negative game state, and even then, it was for just a few minutes. Since coming back from injury, it’s been wire to wire. While the Bucs are not likely to be leading (based on the spread), the 20-25% chance that they do get ahead and push Chicago, is enough for me to bet the over alone. The Bears are flying over totals in games where they are front running. When they are down, we haven’t see how good this offense is for the over yet this season.

The second is the unknown offensive upside of Tampa Bay with Baker Mayfield. In the last two games they have had him drop back to pass a total of 13 times. Last week he did not complete a pass in the downpour. He is now two weeks past the injury return timeline, and by all accounts should be good to go. This will be the first time since Week 2 we should see him at form and health in this offense. I don’t think we know what the offensive upside is for Tampa Bay with the way their offensive line is playing and how well they are running the ball, when a healthy Baker is added in. Even if it is a moderate lift, it is still enough upside to add into this total.

I will keep paying these Chicago overs in good weather until we see what this offense looks like chasing and that potential is realized in the market. So far, it’s not.