Week 8: 49ers @ Texans

NFL Record: 24-17 (+4.85x)

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Houston Texans -2.5 

(-2 at BOL and PIN)

Last week the 49ers opened -3 (-20) and were then bet down late week from -2.5 to +1. There was no new injury news of the week. It was one of the biggest fades in market of the season. This week War has been shaded high all week and this price has held despite HOU ruling out Collins and Kirk and SF being a very popular side. It’s quite a telling sign to see. I like the way the market looks here, and I like the spot of both teams off contrasting prime time performances. The 49ers win vs ATL was impressive, but I don’t see it being repeatable. Last week SF took advantage of an injured Michael Penix (hurt 2Q vs Buffalo) and played one of the most inspired defensive games of any team this season at home with injured Fred Warner in the stands constantly rallying fans. It was an emotional game, and as great as the 49ers staff is, I am betting against that traveling this week. In game vs ATL the SF lost Bryce Huff who has a 15% pressure rate this season. Saleh has been trying to blitz more the last two weeks, but he can’t seem to sustain it as the 49ers are still at the bottom of the league for blitz rate. With the standard rush so limited now, Stroud could have time behind this rough OL like he did against BAL and TEN, where the HOU offense looked competent. This is a much different test vs SF than on the road facing SEA, or even the tough pass rushes faced in Week 1-3 too. I think it is likely we see an elevated Texans defensive effort as this is Ryan’s unit going up against his mentor and former team. The Texans have been great all season, especially at rallying to passes in the flat and defending screens. I like the Texans to bounce back and begin a key three game home stand with a win and cover.

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