Season Record: 11-9 (+1.05x)
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Chicago Bears Green Bay Packers Over 46.5
(45.5 -15 at FD)
The Bears entered Week 1 as one of the biggest over teams in the league. Adjusted up for offensive scheme and coach commentary, their base total was in the 50’s. After flying over in Week 1 with a closing total of 47.5, they faced the Vikings and Carson Wentz in a downpour, a broken Eagles offense and the Jets who ran just 32 offensive plays. All three games have gone under with totals between 43.5 and 46. I just don’t buy anything this defense is doing and in no way see this as a team that currently has a rating of top 5 in EPA/play and success rate.
Bears games in general this season have had a ton of hidden points kept off the scoreboard. In the last three games, both the Bears offense and opponents combined for 15 empty red zone trips, 4 empty drives and 4 turnovers (INT, fumble, downs) inside the 5. On a yards per point and yards per drive basis this season, Bears games (even with backups for three weeks) are averaging an expected output of 47.5 points, and 42.5 in the last three weeks including the bad weather game. While these three games have been dead under on the final result, the games have played out much more like overs.
The Packers are an ideal over candidate to pair with the Bears this week. Last week changes and addition to the offensive line kept Jordan Love much cleaner in the pocket and led to the highest offensive success rate game of the season for Green Bay. Following the Week 3 game, Jordan Love was pressured more than any other QB in the league, and commented about how it was tough for him and his internal clock to get rid of the ball so quickly (teams averaged 2.33 seconds per pressure). The offensive line play and quicker passing led to the Bucs having the lowest pressure rate of any team in Week 4. With another week to get the offensive line right and continue improving, I expect the Packers offense to move and have success here.
The Packers defensively have been burned by outside zone runs all season, and will be without their best linebacker and possibly Hargrave in the middle of their defensive line. Chicago is going to be able to run it well with Swift when they choose, but the expectation from commentary is that there will be more passing in this game from Bagent, which is certainly another plus for the over.
I think this one gets a bit wild on Sunday. I have a strong stance on the side here too for those interested in reading.
