Week 4: Bears @ Raiders

Pick and write-up for Bears @ Raiders

Author

Adam Chernoff
September 26, 2025

NFL Record: 11-6 (+4.20x)

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Las Vegas Raiders -110

I like betting into the matchup here with Las Vegas. Ted Nguyen who is close to the Raiders team wrote a very compelling article this week. It detailed the success Chip Kelly had during his time with UCLA and Ohio State making in-season adjustments to the offense to get the most out of his players. The speculation right now is that the Raiders will try open up the failing run game this week by utilizing more presnap motion. Through three games Ashton Jeanty has just 10 yards before contact and the Raiders have the fifth lowest motion rate. The lack of run game has killed the offense. The Bears are an ideal opponent to try get this right against as they rank 32nd in run stop win rate this season. Ground game success should spring pass game success too for Las Vegas. The Raiders line has been overwhelmed through three games with opposing defenses not respecting the run. Chicago ranks 30th in pass rush win rate and is a big step down in class from the three above average rushes the Raiders have faced so far. This should lead to more downfield success for Geno Smith, especially if Kyler Gordon is absent from a secondary already down their best corner Jaylon Johnson.

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