Week 3: Texans @ Jaguars

NFL Record: 7-4 (+2.40x) (2 pending this week, more coming today)

Jacksonville Jaguars -120

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Jacksonville is going to run all over this Texans defense on Sunday. All of the controversy brewing about disputes between Lawrence and Coen could be forgotten for four quarters. Tampa Bay played the majority of the game on Monday Night on the road from a silent count down at least both starting tackles, and then a starting guard for a chunk of time. Nevermind the fact they already had three players out of position already. This was supposed to be where the vaunted Texans defense feasts! Instead, Tampa Bay got whatever they wanted on the ground. They ran for 5.6 a carry and 169 yards. Irving added another easy 50 yards through the pass game. The commentary team was criticizing Houston often for how much space they conceded. This is so bad from the Texans defense which sure played aggressive outside, but looked so soft in the middle. I think about what Jacksonville wants to do on offense, and what has made Liam Coen earn so much respect - and it’s exactly what Tampa Bay did - creative run design. It’s what we’ve seen so far from the Jaguars offense for two weeks, and we will see it again.

On the other side of the ball, all of the same issues that existed for Houston last season, somehow still exist again. They can’t protect Stroud to save their lives. The offensive line is a mess and running backs in pass pro are getting trucked over. Todd Bowles threw a lot of blitz and stunts at the line to get to Stroud, which fits the playbook of new Jaguars DC Anthony Campanile well. Through two weeks the Jaguars are 11th in blitz rate, 6th in stunt rate, 10th in sim pressure rate and 4th in rush rate with 6 or more guys. What’s the path here for the Texans offense? They cannot run to alleviate pressure. On 16 of 18 drives this season Houston has faced a 2nd or 3rd down and 9 or longer. That’s the second most in the league. This is an offense that is in trouble right now and faces a Jaguars defense with a pair of great rushers and a top 12 linebacker unit.

The Jaguars were unfortunate to not be 2-0 returning home but sure have a great matchup here on both sides of the ball.