Season Record: 8-4 (+3.70x)
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New England Patriots Jacksonville Jaguars Over 45
Here begins the run of New England Patriots overs…
The offense is extremely suppressed. Consider when and against who we have see this team play recently…
Wildcard: vs LA Chargers: First playoff game for Maye (historic struggle spot) against the 5th best defense in success rate with Jesse Minter.
Divisional vs Houston: Playoff game in wind, rain and snow against the 2nd best defense in success rate with Demeco Ryans.
Conference @ Denver: Playoff game in wind, snow against the 1st best defense in success rate with Vance Joseph.
Super Bowl vs Seattle: Second youngest QB to ever play in the Super Bowl against Seattle the 3rd best defense in success rate and top overall defense with Mike McDonald.
Week 1 @ Seattle: Season opener on banner raising night in Seattle against the best defense in the league with Mike McDonald.
Week 2 vs Pittsburgh: Home game in wind and rain against Pittsburgh which has the most expensive defense in the league.
The offense has struggled, so has Drake Maye. But what is the expectation here!? He has played stand alone primetime games against the best defenses, defensive coordinators and schemes in the league in huge pressure spots.
For the first 16 weeks of last season (with a less talented offense) Maye led the Patriots to the #2 dropback EPA mark in the league. This week against Jacksonville is the first game he has faced against a below average defense in a VERY long time.
The opposite is true for the Patriots defense. In this stretch of six games, they faced two backup quarterbacks on short notice or in game injury, a 42 year old falling off a cliff in a third, and were aided by three weather games, two of which featured dome teams travelling and playing outdoors. With the exception of Klint Kubiak in the Super Bowl, this Jaguars offense is the best that the Patriots defense has faced in a very long time. Even think about dating back into the regular season. They faced Ewers, Cook and Huntley to finish, three more backups.
This Pats team was a dead over team last year, and now they finally have a good over opponent. The Jaguars through two weeks lead the league in explosive plays. They also play a ton of three wide receiver sets which negates some of the Christian Gonzalez advantage. Through two weeks, the best corner in football played Seattle (not much WR threat past JSN) and Pittsburgh (no WR threat past Metcalf as Pittman missed).
The Jaguars defensively have some noise through two weeks as well. They faced a very limited Browns offense led by Deshaun Watson, and then gave up 400 yards, 6.6 per play, 49% success rate and 15% explosive play rate to Bo Nix and the Broncos who looked incapable of sustaining a drive a week earlier against Kansas City. Aggregate ratings have them pegged below average talent wise, and I think we see them regress in this game.
Weather is perfect and there is a ton of explosive play potential on both sides with these offenses.
I like that this is not a popular over either. The market has come down half a point since open, and most reports have handle split. I really think this Pats offense is hidden, and we can see this play over 45 points.
