Week 11: Panthers @ Falcons

NFL Record: 32-24 (+5.20x)

👉️ It is a busy weekend ahead. This is the 7th bet I have made this week, with chance of one more this weekend. I like this Week 11 card. If you are interested in seeing all of the picks and reading the write-ups, tap or click here to upgrade to a full member. 👈️ 

Below is the free write-up of the week send to the entire list.

Atlanta Falcons -3.5

An all or nothing divisional revenge game at home could be exactly what the Falcons need to finally reconcile these crazy offensive numbers. Atlanta ranks 14th in yards per play this season, but 31st in yards per point. They rank 15th in yards per drive, but just 30st in scoring drive percentage. It’s ridiculous to think that this team with so many weapons putting up 333 yards per game is scoring just 17 points per game. For the first 8 weeks of the season, it was red zone luck doing them in. They were averaging one of the highest red zone opportunities per game in the league, but converting among the league lowest to touchdowns. The last two games they have been a perfect 6/6. This issue looks to be fixed. The problem is they ran into the Patriots and Colts offenses, which are two of the best in the league. Carolina is a reprieve on both sides of the ball and I am betting that everything clicks here for Atlanta. War is the first spot to show 4, which is typically a good indicator late week (especially this season) of where the market is heading. Reports have this game split, largely due to the first meeting in my opinion. I just don’t know how valid that is. Despite losing 30-0 in the first matchup, the Falcons outgained the Panthers by 1.0 yards per play, and held them to just 224 total yards and 4.1 per play. Much of the bad luck mentioned above played out. Atlanta missed multiple field goals, failed on fourth and short twice, fumbled in Carolina territory and threw a pick six. I don’t think 30-0 is a reflection of the expectation for this game. The matchups are positive too between Atlanta’s high blitz rate, Bryce Young struggling against it, the Panthers playing a ton of zone, and Penix excelling against it.