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Week 10: Patriots @ Buccaneers
Pick and write-up for Patriots @ Buccaneers
Adam Chernoff
November 05, 2025
NFL Record: 30-21 (+6.45x)
❗️ I am expecting to send out 5-6 picks and write-ups for Sunday. This is the free pick of the week going out to everyone. If you want to receive the others, upgrade to become a full member here. 👈️
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5
I am betting into Todd Bowles doing what Todd Bowles does best - give young quarterbacks a lot of trouble, specifically in the first meeting. It’s been his MO his entire career! His defense is brutal to prepare for, and the aggression is difficult to manage when seeing it for the first time. It’s a spot that goes back years, and one I enjoy playing when it comes up. Another reason I like to buy into the narrative is because Bowles typically wins this games against young QB’s with exotic blitz and pressure. Today in a press conference Drake Maye had to address the number of sacks he is taking, acknowledging he is holding onto the ball too long. That’s going to be an issue against this defense and I am not sure it resolves this week. The run of wins the Pats have been on to boost there rating must be noted. Outside of Buffalo, it has been beating up below average and bottom feeding teams during the six game win streak. On the road into Tampa Bay off the bye is a tough spot. Baker Mayfield said the full 7 days off the team received was a huge benefit. When talking about himself, he said it was much needed to recover from a hurt oblique, which caused him not to scramble once in the two games leading into the bye. He should be more like early season Baker this week. I think there is something to be said about the Bucs being a little under rated too. Although quite fortunate in some wins, they have been among the most injured teams in the league, and in contrast to New England, are coming off games against Philadelphia, Seattle, San Francisco and Detroit in the same time window - going 3-2 in that stretch. They beat the one common opponent to New England by 14 more points. I like Tampa Bay to end the Patriots win streak and get a home cover here.
