- Adam's Newsletter
- Posts
- Week 1: Panthers @ Jaguars
Hello!
Quick note: This write-up is for free subscribers. There are three more Week 1 write-ups (possibly one more coming) available today for full subscribers. If you are interested in upgrading, you can use this link.
You can name for full season price based on an amount you think is fair for the value you get from the content. Once upgraded, all emails will be delivered to your inbox. Write-ups sent earlier this week can be read on the archive here.
Carolina Panthers Jacksonville Jaguars Over 46.5
EverBank Field is a weatherstem stadium and has field-level data, my top source when available. Earlier this week there were concerns about rain, but both WS and other models now show the bulk of it hitting between 1–2pm. Accumulation is low, though lightning is a real possibility. Liam Coen even mentioned in his final presser that the team has contingency plans for a delay. From a betting perspective, any delay would likely just push back kickoff rather than affect game flow, so I lean confidently toward playing this now.
I expect Jacksonville to start fast. Trevor Lawrence is a near-consensus breakout pick among sharp fantasy analysts, and I’m buying into Coen’s impact after he revitalized Tampa’s run game last year. Despite questions about the offensive line, familiarity with Coen’s system and a deep backfield make this unit feel very similar to last year’s Bucs. The big leap is going to come in the run game and its ability in Coen’s system to open up easy throws downfield. Against a bottom-three defensive line, I expect the ground game to produce immediately.
The receiver depth is strong too. Thomas Jr. is a top-10 talent, Brown was brought in to stretch the field, Hunter has crazy upside, and Washington continues to earn praise from Lawrence. Even with the Panthers healthier on defense, their secondary still grades no better than 28th in preseason previews.
Carolina deserves an upward arrow on offense as well. Dave Canales helped Bryce Young grow more confident last season, his reads improved, he avoided sacks better, and extended plays when needed. Unlike Jacksonville, the Panthers’ offensive line is a strength. Four starters return, and their physical ground game should win against a Jaguars front ranked 30th by PFF. Carolina also upgraded at receiver. McMillan is a big target and true #1 for Young. Renfrow’s was brought back and his route running should be a nice safety value underneath.
I have nothing but question marks on the Jaguars defense. Last year it was hopeless, there is a reason Ryan Nielsen is a senior assistant now. Anthony Campanile has never been more than a positional coach, and inherits the aforementioned poor defensive line, and the worst safety room in the league. This is a night and day change from Nielsen. Gone is the aggressive press coverage, and in is passive off coverage looks. Carolina’s physicality upfront and outside makes this a less than ideal matchup for the Jags.
