Season Record: 1-0 (+1.00x)
Pending: Three more picks for Sunday.
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Dallas Cowboys New York Giants Under 48
No team gave up more points last season than the Dallas Cowboys. It led to the Cowboys having a market rating total of 53 points. They went over 13 of 17 games because their offense was so good at playing catch-up. But the expectation is night and day entering this season for the defense, and I question some of these high totals to start the season (48 this week, 52 week 2, 51.5 week 3). This year their market rating total is 52 points, which feels too high due to defensive improvements.
Christian Parker is in as the defensive coordinator and new names have been added throughout the three levels. One of the best subjective commentary notes I saw this offseason was a 65 second clip from Daniel Jeremiah speaking about his time at Cowboys camp and how “legit” this Cowboys defense is going to be this season. If the Cowboys are not forced into chasing a deficit immediately like they were so often last year, we should see a much different pace to their games.
Dallas wants to be a run first offense and there are numerous quotes in the offseason hinting at putting more focus on the run. With Tyler Smith out and the strength of the Giants defense being the pass rush, it’s likely we see the Cowboys push the run and quick pass game to neutralize that element of the attack. Earlier this week with Nick, Baldy had an adamant stance that the Giants have an edge in the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
I am having some trouble seeing where the New York Giants are a good over partner in this game. I don’t think a Matt Nagy led offense with Jaxson Dart under center should be lined as the third highest total on the board against any team. Especially with Malik Nabers working through his injury. At the podium Friday he expressed thinking about his long term health, and yesterday the Giants elevated a practice squad wide receiver. Harbaugh is notorious for playing games with injury reports, but the personnel change signals concern.
All in all, I see the Cowboys with a (somewhat) quietly much improved defense, an offense that wants to play differently than perception, a key OL injury, and a Giants team that is defense heavy. Give me the under here.
