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Hello!
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Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns Over 46.5 (-110)
Current at: CRIS, BOL, CZ, DK, Buckeye, BetWar - FD 45.5 o-15, PIN 46 -10
I am buying into the “fast start” rhetoric coming from Cincinnati about their offense this season. It’s typically nonsense - no team wants to start a season slow - but the commentary and urgency feels very real to me.
The actions and scenario support it too.
This is the first time since Joe Burrow entered the league in 2020 that he has had a full and uninterrupted training camp and preseason. He’s been healthy for the duration and no key skill players on offense held out. Zac Taylor pushed Burrow through five drives in two games this preseason and he looked sharp throughout. I am buying into this offense not missing a beat from where it left off last season scoring 28 a game.
What did not look sharp was the defense, and it is the area of the team where there was disruption this offseason. Leading pass rusher Trey Hendrickson just signed this week after a long hold out. I have my doubts he gets in the 48-50 snaps he averaged per game last season in Week 1.
Al Golden will be coordinating a defense in the NFL for the first time. I am higher than most on the prospect of him developing the youth on this defense into something competitive, but it will take time. The secondary did not improve this offseason, and the middle of this defense was gashed at each level in the preseason by opposing run games.
Cleveland is starting Joe Flacco and as long as he is QB1 I am intrigued by Browns overs. The last time he played with Stefanski in 2023, the Browns pass rate over expectation went through the roof. He threw 42 or more passes in 5 of the 6 games and averaged 9.3 intended air yards per throw which was the second highest of any QB for the season with at least 135 pass attempts. The Browns led and won four of those games too, so it’s not like it was forced deep shots by necessity. It’s who he is and what the Stefanski offense allows him to do.
The forecast is clear of rain and wind two days on either side of Sunday and the number is more than reasonable too. Last year Week 16 closed 45.5 (vs Thompson-Robinson) in 31 degree temps at kickoff.
Between the Bengals offensive urgency, an expected slow start for the defense and the Browns starting Flacco, this sure looks like an over to me.
