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Chicago Bears Carolina Panthers Over 46

45.5 at FD, 46 flat at War, Buckeye, CRIS, BOL, DK, CZR

I am happy to bet the over in this game which has a total half a point above league average, but features one dead over play caller, and one [new] sneaky over play caller.

I am confident the market is doing a good job at pricing in Ben Johnson and his desire for the 2026 Bears to be the highest scoring offense in league history. He has become one of the best head coach sound bites for an over I can remember.

In a recent interview, Johnson said,

"I want to have the highest-scoring offense ever, which happens to be the 2013 Broncos. I know how many points per game they scored [37.9], and I want to surpass them. I want shootouts. I want blowouts."

The Bears have a market rating for totals of 49.6 points, which is the 9th highest in the league.

I am also confident the Panthers are being mispriced, too much as an under, to begin the season. That is where I see value in this game.

Carolina has a market rating for totals of 42.1, which is the 7th lowest in the league. This does not fit with what head coach Dave Canales and offensive coordinator [and newly anointed play caller] Brad Idzik are saying.

Last season Carolina snapped the ball 100 times with 1 second (or less) on the play clock. It was the fifth highest rate in the league and an increase of more than 3x from the first year of the Canales/Idzik tenure. It put pressure on the Panther offense and in turn led to some dreadful pace splits and pass rates.

In an interview during training camp, Idzik was asked about this very thing, and said the following,

“We have to press on our end the urgency of getting to the line of scrimmage, there’s a reason for it to try to get the defense to undress as fast as possible so we’re not up against the clock. That is definitely a huge trend that we keep track of. And we don’t want to be on the back end of snapping that thing with one second on the clock every time because that’ll be the O-lineman’s worst friend, when the defensive line knows, ‘OK, they either snap it now, or they’re a delay of game.’ (The defense) can roar off the ball. We want to stay ahead of the clock and continue to be in an attacking nature as much as we can.”

It is rare to see a team so uniform in their decision making game state to game state. Even a slight increase to pace and pass rate is going to have a sweeping impact for Carolina and have them play to a rate higher than a 42.1 for their total this season.

No coach in history of any sport has come out in the preseason and said they want their team to play slow, burn the play clock and be boring. However, I don’t see this as coach speak, at all. I believe what they are saying because the Panthers under Canales have been highly analytical and consistent in their messaging since day one.

When asked about measuring quarterback benchmarks during this preseason, Canales reiterated the importance off the top of “attacking the line of scrimmage” and “playing with great tempo” as key things he is wanting and watching for from his offense. The message is clear. More tempo. More pace. Team insider Michael Kaye believes that the increased urgency to break the huddle and get to the line of scrimmage is going to lead to a higher pass rate.

Opening the season against Chicago is a perfect recipe for points. Aside from the endless Johnson quotes and his offensive mindset, the Bears are a team set for huge defensive regression and already dealing with injuries to the secondary in camp that will impact this game.

This one gets into the 50’s.