Houston Texans Win Total

Houston Texans Alt Over 10.5 Wins (+145)

All win totals are risking 0.50x

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The Texans are priced at 9.5 wins for the third consecutive season.

In 2024 Houston was a preseason favorite in 10 of 17 games. They went over their total and won 10 games despite…

• WR1 Nico Collins going on IR in Week 6

• WR2 Stefon Diggs being lost for the season in Week 8

• RB1 Joe Mixon missing 3 games and playing through lingering ankle injuries

• WR3 Tank Dell lost for season in Week 16

CJ Stroud was sacked 52 times behind an offensive line that dealt with revolving injuries and ranked 30th or worse in run and pass blocking metrics. Their run game ranked 30th in epa per rush.

In 2025 Houston was a preseason favorite in 9 of 17 games. They went over their total and won 12 games despite…

• QB1 CJ Stroud missing 3 games and playing through lingering concussion symptoms in November

• RB1 Joe Mixon missing the entire season due to a foot injury

• WR2 Tank Dell missing the entire season due to knee surgery

• WR1 Nico Collins missing 4 games due to concussion

The offensive line struggled again, as did fourth round rookie Woody Marks at running back. Houston ranked 30th in run block win rate, 32nd in pass block win rate and 30th in yards per rush.

In 2026 Houston is a preseason favorite in 13 of their 17 games.

Based on aggregate offensive position rankings, Houston has the 23rd ranked offense entering the season. This is a new low for a Texans team under CJ Stroud. In 2025 they ranked 18th, in 2024 they ranked 14th in the same aggregates.

I am willing to bet they go over their win total this season due to expected offensive improvement.

OC Nick Caley showed in his debut season that his offensive scheme can protect CJ Stroud better than what OC Bobby Slowik could in 2024. Stoud was hit 50 fewer times last year, and his sack rate was down 3%. This offseason Houston added Wyatt Teller, Braden Smith and drafted Keylan Rutledge in the first round to boost the offensive line. The addition of David Montgomery to the backfield is a good fit for this power scheme. Woody Marks as a third down back is a much better situation for him too. The protection and run game is going to be better than any season Stoud has played in Houston.

There is upside for the passing game too. CJ Stroud took a ton of criticism last season, but in my opinion he should get a bit of a pass. Caley asked Stroud to do far more at the line of scrimmage than any of his pro seasons prior. Throughout the season in press conferences and interviews, there was commentary about ongoing shifts and changes through Stroud at the line. This new added responsibility looked clunky at times but Stroud still ended the season ranked 9th in epa per pass, up from 24th in 2024. With all of his pass catchers returning (including Tank Dell who was cleared on Thursday) the added responsibility and flexibly for Stroud at the line should only improve things through a second camp with Caley.

Last season Houston ranked 11th in scoring drive percentage, but just 30th in red zone conversion rate. With so many moving parts and a clunky, changing operation, this team still continuously moved the ball and won 12 games, but just failed to convert at the end of drives too often. Entering this season the questions all have an answer in place on paper, and the pieces have improved. I see this group being much better than 23rd on offense. The upside paired with what will be an elite defense, leads me to be comfortable betting into 11 or more wins this season.