My first NFL Mock Draft

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This is the first mock draft I have done in my life.

I want to preface this by saying, I am not a draft expert. I do not have inside info, nor am I implying that I have connections to these teams. The picks made below are based on the best I can assemble the public puzzle pieces given to us in general manager, head coach and local media interviews. I intentionally kept any opinions I have about teams out of the reasoning for the picks. This is much more of a handicapping effort, than it is a mock drafting effort.

I thought it was important to compile everything together before free agency next week which will go a long way in determining confidence levels in these picks. My hope is that this provides context as to what is ahead, and additional attempts in the future will be more accurate closer to draft day.

In each write-up I have included links and references to certain interviews, articles and tweets to support the thought process.

Replies via email to critique (or commend) my effort more than welcome.

Enjoy.

1. Chicago Bears: QB, Caleb Williams

Ryan Poles said nothing during his combine press conference to imply interest in keeping Justin Fields. No questions about the draft were answered with the crutch of something along the lines of, “Justin is our guy” or “Justin remains the starter". Everything being said by HC/GM seems to indicate they want Williams at #1 and that should come as little surprise to anyone.

2. Washington Commanders: QB, Drake Maye

Jeff Howe, National NFL Insider for The Athletic, reported after the combine that rival NFL executives believe Washington is high on Maye. John Keim has covered the team since 1994, and said on his podcast this week that he had more discussions with scouts and executives during his time at the combine that made Maye higher than Daniels.

3. New England Patriots: QB, Jayden Daniels

Eliot Wolf mentioned twice at the combine how he values body language in a QB and likes all prospects this season because they are tough. Many were quick to identify this as a shot at Mac Jones. In his media conference call, Daniel Jeremiah made a case for Patriots taking a QB at #3. The crew at Patriots Unfiltered all believe the team is happy with any QB here.

4. Arizona Cardinals: WR, Marvin Harrison Jr

Trevor Sikkema of PFF went on PHNX and made a good point about Harrison Jr having confidence in what he has shown on film as reason to opt out of the Combine. This falls in line with Cardinals GM Monti Ossenfort saying the team has done a lot of work on Harrison already during his combine media.

5. LA Chargers: OL, Joe Alt

Greg Roman did a media round table in late February and talked about the value of a strong running game, and how well it would fit with Justin Herbert. In his post combine big board breakdown, team reporter Daniel Popper mentioned how Harbaugh and Hortiz have been consistent in messaging about building through the trenches. One would fit the other well.

6. NY Giants: DE, Dallas Turner

The one concrete statement from Giants staff was GM Joe Schoen at the combine discussing the new defensive scheme and the need for defensive edge rushers more than run stoppers. This week Daniel Jeremiah said to Rich Eisen Turner’s performance at the combine makes him the one defensive player who can break into the top 10.

7. Tennessee Titans: WR, Rome Odunze

Both the GM and HC said during combine media they value a wide receiver more than an offensive lineman. Callahan doubled down in the media scrum after the main presser. New OL coach Bill Callahan is regarded as an elite OL developer which gives the team more wiggle room for taking OL later and going with an immediate day one starter at WR.

8. Atlanta Falcons: QB, JJ McCarthy

This can be dead wrong by Wednesday afternoon. If Cousins stays in Minnesota, and the Bears want too much for Fields. It is clear based on combine media that GM Terry Fontenot and HC Raheem Morris both want - and need - a QB. McCarthy would be the best available. If the Falcons do land a QB in free agency, they would likely go edge rusher here.

9. Chicago Bears: WR, Malik Nabers

Nothing concrete from GM or HC as the majority of reporter questions are focused on the top pick. This is based off top experts picks and rankings.

10. New York Jets: OL, Olu Fashanu

I have high confidence on the Jets drafting an OL. Tomlinson was released. Vera-Tucker can go to either side. Joe Douglas was mum about all position groups during his subdued combine presser, he did single out the importance of building the offensive line. The Badlands podcast which I trust, spoke about how great of a year it is to draft an offensive lineman in a recent episode.

11. Minnesota Vikings: DL, Bryon Murphy II

Very low confidence in this pick. During the combine Vikings VP of Scouting Ryan Grigson said everything regarding the draft is murky until the QB situation is sorted out. Past the QB comments, Alec Lewis who covers the Vikings for The Athletic said don’t be surprised if the Vikings spend on defense and allocate most of their nine picks here, with the need to find 6-8 new starters.

12.  Denver Broncos: TE, Brock Bowers

Broncos GM George Paton said in a News9 interview that the Broncos must solidify the tight end position. Drafting Bowers who is labelled as the best TE prospect ever is an easy way to do that, if the Broncos do not address the QB spot through trade or free agency (Could they end up getting Taysom Hill?).

13. Las Vegas Raiders: CB, Terrion Arnold

At the combine, Terrion Arnold said publicly that he met with the Raiders and sounds like a fit for the personality HC Antonio Pierce wants. Justin Churchill covers the Raiders for AtoZ Sports and is confident on the fit with Las Vegas if their QB need is addressed pre draft.

14. New Orleans Saints: DL, Jared Verse

Jeff Ireland of the Saints said during combine media that they are looking for defensive linemen who are athletes, putting a value on speed and the on field workouts. Verse showed exactly that at the combine. Nick Underhill explained this need in a recent video and referenced Ireland saying the same thing earlier at the Senior Bowl.

15. Indianapolis Colts: WR, Brian Thomas Jr

Chris Ballard said in his most recent press conference that it is on him to do a better job of supporting the offense and blames himself for allowing the Colts to play with a three WR rotation so much in 2023. He then praised the depth of this WR class while saying the more skill guys they can have around Richardson, the better.

16. Seattle Seahawks: OL, Jackson Powers-Johnson

There has been next to no useful commentary from Seahawks staff as reporters have been pushing the new hires for big picture thoughts. The best breakdown I have seen for the Seahawks is from Nate Tice appearing on MyNorthwest addressing the issues Seattle has on the interior of the line.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars: CB, Quinyon Mitchell

One of the more random, and now telling, quotes of the combine was Trent Baalke going out of his way to mention the need Jacksonville has at CB saying that all coaches have it as a priority. A few days later the team cut Darious Williams who graded out as the fourth best CB in 2023. Quite confident they are looking for another CB in the draft.

18. Cincinnati Bengals: OL, Taliese Fuaga

The only position group staff hinted as a need was TE, but it seems unlikely Bowers makes it to #18. If Jonah Williams leaves in free agency and the Bengals do not sign anyone, Fuaga could be the fifth right tackle in the last five seasons for Burrow.

19. Los Angeles Rams: CB, Nate Wiggins

Les Snead and Sean McVay have provided the least informative media of any team this offseason. The main needs are OL, DL and CB. They have a history of adding a veteran pass rusher in free agency and just re-signed Dotson at guard yesterday. Confidence in CB is low, but will be much higher if left untouched in free agency.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers: OL, Zach Frazier

The Steelers released center Mason Cole after the season. Before the combine it was reported that a league source told team reporter Mike DeFabo the Steelers “loved” Frazier. Now this week the Steelers are following up and having one of their top 30 visits with the center.

21. Miami Dolphins: OL, Troy Fautanu

Mike McDaniel was one of just two head coaches to stay the duration of the combine and watch offensive linemen. GM Chris Grier said the team will have to add offensive linemen during his combine media implying multiple will be lost. The guys at 3YardsPerCarry spoke confidently about the need in a recent draft focused episode. Fautanu fits a number of holes on the Dolphins OL.

22. Philadelphia Eagles: CB, Ennis Rakestraw Jr.

Howie Roseman said during his press conference that he needs to do a better job of bringing guys in to play defensive back. This week they released Avonte Maddox and Kevin Byard leaving room for multiple additions this offseason in a rebuild of the secondary. Rakestraw Jr. makes more since for the new Eagles scheme with Fangio than a more man focused corner in McKinstry.

23. Houston Texans: DL, Jer’Zhan Newton

I owe Greg at CoachSpeakIndex a shoutout for DM’ing me a clip with DeMeco Ryans ending his end of year presser with an answer talking about how they will continue to reinvest resources into the defensive front. Sneaky, considering his combine pressers were about “separators” at WR.

24. Dallas Cowboys: OL, Tyler Guyton

Tyron Smith is set to hit free agency leaving a hole at tackle. Stephen Jones identified needs at OL and LB during his combine presser. There are only 3 tackles in the top 50 of PFF free agent rankings. Quite confident the Cowboys go OL in the draft, especially if center Biadasz leaves in free agency too.

25. Green Bay Packers: CB, Cooper DeJean

GM Brian Gutekunst dropped multiple hints in his recent press conference that defense is a priority this season after hitting on multiple offensive rookies last year. He mentioned getting guys to fit new DC Jeff Hafley’s scheme, citing that he wants versatile guys who can do multiple things. In Jeremiah’s latest mock, he has DeJean to Green Bay citing that “he can play every position in the secondary.”

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: OL, JC Latham

Buccaneers GM Jason Licht said that the interior offensive line is a priority and it is something the team is looking at, not just in the draft, but free agency too.

27. Arizona Cardinals, DL, Chop Robinson

The Bears gave no hints about their second pick. The Cardinals were different. GM Monti Ossenfort was asked a question which implied he had said elsewhere to the reporter that he was interested in getting a “game wrecking defensive linemen.” Few defensive players impressed like Chop at the combine.

28. Buffalo Bills, WR, Adonai Mitchell

All of Brandon Beane’s recent media has skewed offensive focused when pressed about the draft. At the combine presser he talked about putting value in mismatch skill position players. At the combine, Mitchell put up numbers comparable only to DK Metcalf for his size and weight. He certainly fits the mismatch label, and would fill in well if Gabe Davis leaves in free agency.

29. Detroit Lions, CB, Kamari Lassiter

Russell Brown of LionsWire had a great write-up in late February about how Lassiter fits what the Lions need at DB. Lions GM Brad Holmes called himself a “cornerback snob” during his combine presser, citing his history and love for evaluating the position. Holmes likely noticed the standout combine numbers from Lassier.

30. Baltimore Ravens, OL, Amarius Mims

Eric DeCosta and John Harbaugh made it clear, the Ravens are rebuilding the offensive line this offseason and in the draft. I have high confidence that they will draft OL. Mims is projected to go slightly higher than 30, but his hamstring tweak at the combine, might give enough doubt for him to slip to the Ravens.

31. San Francisco 49ers, OL, Jordan Morgan

John Lynch gave the second least informative presser next to the Rams. Even at the combine it was unclear who was managing the draft for the 49ers until the second day. Very low confidence, but the majority of respected draft analysts have the 49ers attacking the OL. I could see DL as an option too.

32. Kansas City Chiefs, WR, Xavier Worthy

Brett Veach revealed that he tried to trade up for a wide receiver in the first round of the 2023 draft, and has a long history of filling needs in the draft. Trading Sneed for a pick higher to get a better WR is not crazy this year. If they hold, Worthy said that he and Mahomes had trained together in the offseason, which explains why Mahomes was watching him so closely, and tweeting, during the combine when he broke the record. Confident that the Chiefs will draft a WR anywhere they go, but the familiarity could make it happen with Worthy.