My reaction to the first power rankings of 2024

Here are the six teams I think are ranked incorrectly in the post free agency power rankings at The Athletic

Author

Adam Chernoff
March 22, 2024

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Josh Kendall at The Athletic published Power Rankings post free-agency on Tuesday. These rankings are the first I have seen this offseason and account for current roster moves up to this point.

Here is where I think Josh is too high, and too low with teams.

Too High

#5 Green Bay Packers

I disagree and thought this was a typo. This is a monster leap. The only notable offseason addition is Xavier McKinney at safety! This was the youngest roster last season with a win total of 7.5. Did we really learn enough to show this team is worthy of a top-five rank and a full 3-win bump? Or did this team just get hot at the right time and out play their ceiling? I mean, the numbers were not overwhelming! The Packers finished 17th in total DVOA for the regular season, 9th in net yards per play, 9th in scoring margin, and 8th in net EPA. Top 10 ranking debate? Maybe. Top 5? That is too much. Mike Clay has this roster ranked 12th in his initial 2024 roster rankings, which I think a better mark.

#12 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I disagree with this ranking more than I do with the Packers ranking. The Buccaneers maintained their roster from last season; they did nothing to improve it. In an overachieving 2023 season where the division around them fell apart, Tampa Bay finished 16th in total DVOA and 20th in net yards per play but had the 8th best turnover margin. I do not expect Baker Mayfield to have a career year for a second season in a row, and I have big questions about the direction of this offense, especially upfront and scheme wise with their new OC. Having Tampa Bay at #12 is ranking them at their absolute peak ceiling. It’s more likely the Buccaneers have a bottom 10 season, than a top 10 season.

#21 Las Vegas Raiders

Las Vegas is a contender for a bottom five team in 2024 and should not be ranked 21st. The Raiders have two big problems. The first is that they do not have a quarterback. It seems unlikely they have enough capital to move up in the draft, so they are stuck in-between. O’Connell is not the answer. He finished 35th of 40 QBs with 220+ snaps in 2023 in EPA+CPOE. Minshew had an amazing play caller in Shane Steichen supporting him in 2023 and finished only 28th in the same metric. Luke Getsy is not getting more out of Minshew than Steichen. The second problem is that history shows interim head coaches being promoted in the offseason have a low success rate. There are many more failures than rebound stories. I don’t think Pierce is going to be the exception to the rule. Christian Wilkins was an amazing free agency addition, but the Raiders are closer to team #31 than team #21.

Too Low

#8 Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati is the best-equipped team to challenge Kansas City in the AFC. They shored up the offensive line adding Trent Brown, giving Joe Burrow his best edge protection of his career. The Bengals ranked dead last in yards per play allowed and conceded too many explosive plays in 2023. They attacked that weakness in free agency adding Geno Stone at safety, which acts like a two for one of sorts freeing up Dax Hill for DC Lou Anarumo. Other depth moves have been savvy and praised by people I respect. Even if the Higgins and Boyd situation are not resolved, the Bengals have draft capital and opportunity to add more pass catchers for Burrow in a deep WR clas. I like the Bengals as team #3 or #4, not as team #8. That is too low.

#15 NY Jets

Last season everything that could have gone wrong for the Jets, did go wrong. They still won 7 games! Mike Clay has the Jets roster tied for 4th with only the Chiefs and Browns in the AFC ranking higher. Current odds have the Jets at the 7th highest odds to win the conference. This is a notable discrepancy. This is the best Jets roster in my lifetime - when healthy. The additions of Morgan Moses, Tyron Smith, and John Simpson fix the offensive line woes. Mike Williams is the strong #2 receiver opposite Wilson the team desperately needs. If TE Brock Bowers is added at #10 in the draft, this is a stacked offense. The loss of Bryce Huff on defense was significant, but the Jets still ranked 4th in free agency improvement index this month. A 7-win roster in a disaster season improving this much and getting their QB back deserves a top 10 ranking, not #15.

#26 LA Chargers

Josh Kendall downgraded the Chargers from 20th to 26th in his ratings post-Super Bowl to post Free Agency. This seems steep to me. In 2023 the Chargers finished 21st in DVOA, 25th in yards per play, and 23rd in scoring margin. I bring that up because Mike Williams only played 2 ½ games last season. Keenan Allen played 13. Justin Herbert missed the final 5 weeks. Losing Williams and Allen is impactful, but Williams was not there last season anyway, and the Chargers still finished higher than this ranking in key categories. Is the downgrade for Allen that significant to make up for the rest of the drop? Maybe, but I can see it offset by the change and improvement in coaching staff. I don’t think the Chargers get to league average ranking in 2024, but this is 5-6 spots too low.

Best things I have read and listened to this week…

Bonus: NLU Episode 808: Ken Green (get ready to laugh)

Enjoy your weekend!