I bet this team to win the conference and go over their win total

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New York Jets - AFC Championship Winner (+1400)
MGM +1600, FD +1500, CZ +1400, BM +1400, 365 +1400, DK +1200

Or…

New York Jets - Over 9.5 Wins (+110)
DK +120, MGM +120, FD +116, BOL EV

Summary:

The expectation for the Jets in 2024 must be higher than in 2023, not lower.

The roster is better, the schedule is easier, and the division is weaker. The offensive leap is being underestimated, and the defense will not take a step back. I anticipate the schedule playing easier than it is projected, which is skewing early win totals too low. Last year, everything that could go wrong did, yet this team managed to get 7 wins. The floor this year is much higher, and the ceiling is a repeat of the 2012 Denver Broncos season.

Analysis:

This is the best offensive roster the Jets have put together in 30 years.

It is so good, Mike Clay has the Jets ranked in a tie for 4th in his roster rankings.

The Jets will undoubtedly improve on their 32nd EPA/play rank from 2023. This season, a final ranking in the top 12 is possible. Rodgers will be fully recovered and ready for all offseason workouts. Hall and Wilson can each be top five at their position, Williams can play to a top 10 WR2 level, and there is finally an offensive line in place. Here is a great article looking at injury-adjusted metrics and making a case for this OL unit to contend to be top 15 in both pass and run blocking.

In my 2023 preview, I said Hackett’s install of the offense would be problematic based on how long it has taken teams in the past to grasp the system. This season I see differently. The core skill position guys got to go through the steep learning curve last year and the league did not get to see the offense run with Rodgers. 2023 was in a way a weird mock season that in turn can accelerate the prep of this group for 2024.

The defense is not going backward. The Jets finished 5th in defensive EPA/play allowed in 2023, and I don’t anticipate a drop in 2024. I love that DC Jeff Ulbrich was retained. This defense was on the brink of quitting for the better part of two months. Ulbrich kept them together. Believe it or not, the Jets played just 84 defensive snaps all season leading by 7 points or more! These guys never had a cushion and still ranked high. If the Jets' offense gets this defense 200 more snaps with a 7+ point lead in 2024, any drop-off due to possible over-performance in 2023 will be negated by playing in more favorable situations.

The schedule is going to play easier than projected.

I am down on the Bills and Dolphins, and these two make up a quarter of the Jets' schedule. Both teams had significant roster turnover and will be worse in 2024. These three teams will be priced properly by midseason but right now the unwarranted gap is contributing to making the Jets' schedule look more difficult than it will play.

The other teams with winning records from 2023 on the Jets 2024 schedule are Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Seattle, LA Rams, Indianapolis, Houston, and San Francisco. With Rodgers on the field, the Jets will be favored in five of those. Like Miami and Buffalo, I think every team but Houston in that group turns out worse in 2024 than they were in 2023.

Then there are five softballs. New England x2, Tennessee, Denver, and Minnesota. Each of these teams has uncertainty at QB and are in respective rebuild years. Five more games the Jets will be chalk.

In total, the Jets should be favored in 11 games (MIA, NE, IND, LA, SEA, DEN, @NE, @TEN, @ARZ, @PIT, @MIN). I could see a scenario where that is 12 at the end of the year if JAX does not add weapons and they start the seaosn slow. I think all four games against MIA and BUF close further in the Jets' favor at kickoff than the preseason look ahead closes.

There is precedence for a team with this roster and staff makeup to succeed.

John Fox and Mike McCoy arrived in Denver after a rock-bottom 2010 season for the Broncos under Josh McDaniels. The Broncos' offense finished 27th in EPA/play with Tim Tebow at QB In 2011, but defensive Pro Bowlers Von Bailey, Elvis Dumervil, Von Miller, and Brian Dawkins kept the team competitive.

In 2012, the coaching staff and defense remained intact, and the team signed Peyton Manning at age 36. The Broncos' offense improved from 27th to 3rd that season, and the defense improved to finish 5th. The Broncos won 13 games, jumping from 8 and 4 wins in the previous two seasons.

It is hard to ignore similarities with the Jets. After 4 and 7 win seasons, the pieces are all here for Rodgers as the veteran QB to lead to the team to a breakthrough year. On defense Quinnen Williams, Jermaine Johnson, Sauce Gardner were all pro bowlers last year. CJ Mosley was a Pro Bowler in 2022 and can be back in ‘24. The defense core is still here.

The point I want to emphasize in the comparison is not just how big of an upgrade it is going from Quinn/Tebow to Manning, but how much the QB stability helps and elevates the defense. The Broncos defense went from good to elite because they were in so many more favorable spots.

The Jets are already at an elite talent level. How high can the ceiling go this year with the offense providing stability?

My final thought is subjective.

Anyone who bets the NFL has strong opinions. The idea of “same old Jets” tends to trump discussion about the team. They have been such a laughingstock for so long; the default outlook is always grim.

We are only six weeks into the offseason, and there have already been three stories (Hardman podcast, Rodgers vice-presidency, fake Johnson/Saleh spat) which have been exaggerated or falsely reported. I get the feeling that there will be plenty more and this team is going to be a big media target in 2024.

There is such an urgency to report the undoing of this team, and I wonder if that is bleeding over into the minds of some bettors and bookmakers keeping this win total below 10? I don’t know; it just seems like the upside and talent here is so obvious and it is being disguised somewhat by the “same old Jets!” If anything, I tend to view the media scrutiny as a rallying point internally for the team.

The way I look at it, this is a different Jets team this year. It is a top-six roster that will favored in 11-12 games by Week 18, with a schedule that will be easier than listed. They should not be priced at 9.5 (+115) and the seventh favorite in the conference.

Enjoy the long holiday weekend! Talk to you next Friday with an updated mock draft.

Adam