5 steps for handicapping teams and the NFL Draft

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The next eight weeks in this newsletter are going to be dedicated to handicapping and betting on the NFL Draft.

I want to preface this by saying that I am new to all of this.

I have not worked on the NFL Draft before. This is my first time going through the full effort of researching, handicapping, and originating any draft bets.

I honestly did not know where to start this week.

I asked one of the professional bettors at RAS for advice and was given a 5-step outline for researching each team.

I broke down each step below and will work through each team using the 5 steps beginning next week. My work will be published and constantly updated in a public Google document for you to follow.

The best way to think about handicapping the draft is that each team is its own individual puzzle. The goal is to eliminate as many pieces as possible and find the best fit for the ones left over.

1. Determine team needs on the roster

Teams obviously use the draft to improve their roster. Most teams do this by using their first-round pick at a position where the roster is the weakest. Go through each team and pick out where the team is strongest with the most depth. The other positions will create a shortlist of possible roster needs.

2. Monitor pre-draft team visits

Each team has 30 pre-draft visits to use on draft-eligible players. All visits are treated differently. Track every pre-draft visit and note two things: repeat positions of players and any information as to how the visit went and what the coaching staff thought of and said about the player.

3. Compare free agency moves with roster needs

The new league year begins on March 13th. Track every move on every team and continuously update how player movement reflects upon and changes roster needs. A team attacking a weak spot on the roster with pre-draft moves will change their strategy entering the draft.

4. Hunt through team forums and reporter accounts

Find the main forum for each team as well as top team reporter accounts. Mark down anything noteworthy about references to the coaching staff and comments relating to the draft. Keep an eye out for anything mentioning players in the draft and ties or connections to the team.

5. Backcheck general manager tendencies

Look to see if there are any clear tendencies of current general managers and how they approach the draft. Do they draft for need or best available? Are there commonalities in player type and specific attributes (size, speed, college, age)? The new tool from ClevTA is full of information for this.

Example: Kansas City Chiefs 1st Round (32nd)

*A much more thorough version of this sample handicap will be constantly updated for each team beginning next week in a public document I will create.

• Not drafting a QB (obvious, and backup situation is solid)

• Unlikely to draft a RB (even if McKinnon is moved, still have Pacheco/CEH and other depth)

• Unlikely to draft a DB (lots of young talent on roster, many assets spent here last two draft years)

• Unlikely to draft a LB (Gay could be on the move in free agency, but Chenal waiting to step in)

• Unlikely to draft a DE (took FAU last season, have Karlaftis and Danna starting, traded for Omenihu last year but he is not ready for next season start)

• DT is a possible draft spot but… (depends entirely on how the Chris Jones situation is handled and any moves in free agency)

• C is a unlikely, but possible draft spot (if Humphrey is moved to guard due to snapping issues)

• LT/RT is a possible draft spot (Smith contract is up, if he leaves, possible that Taylor goes to LT and leave the door open at RT, or LT spot is vacant)

• WR is a possible draft spot (major point of issue early in 2023, WR heavy draft class, not a ton of strong ties to free agents aside from Gabe Davis)

The Chiefs will be an easy team to track between now and the draft. There are 5-6 personnel decisions outlined above that will be answered by late March which will shape how the first pick in the draft is used.

The entire coaching staff has been quiet the last week coming off the Super Bowl victory and it will be another week or two before anything gets mentioned in the media.

Without any knowledge of how those future deals will land, Kansas City at the moment (2/23) looks more likely than not to target an offensive player (OL or WR) with their first pick.