4 more bets for the NFL Draft

Good morning!

Welcome to the April 18th edition of Adam’s Newsletter, powered by Right Angle Sports.

NOTE: These emails usually come out every Friday morning, however, my Mom is celebrating her 65th birthday today and the plans are going to take up the afternoon and evening. In case of any delays, I wanted to get this out beforehand. Next week will have an altered scheduled too, more details below.

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Last night Travis from RAS made his media debut! He and I discussed all 32 picks in the first round on Twitter Spaces. If you missed the audio, you can replay it below…

The draft is one week from tonight!

Here are four more bets to consider adding to your card.

The following are available at DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars or Circa at the time of writing.

Jackson Powers-Johnson Under 32.5 (-125)

Powers-Johnson has been the #2 center prospect since early February and is labelled as pro ready at guard as well. Daniel Jeremiah and Dane Brugler both give him a first round grade. In his seven round mock posted today, Brugler had him going at #25. JPJ has also had three visits with teams in the 20-30 range that need interior line help. The excitement around Zach Frazier is real, but I can’t overlook the fact his leg injury could limit his pre season availability, which would need a leap for a team to take at this position. Many may look at Frazier having so many top 30 visits as a positive, and JPJ having so few as a negative, but I see it as teams doing due diligence on Frazier’s medicals. Barton will be the first center off the board, but I’d be surprised if Powers-Johnson slips out of the first round.

Philadelphia Eagles 1st Pick: Cornerback (+140)

The Eagles are picking at #22 and getting a lot of speculation around drafting an offensive lineman. In his final draft conference call with the media yesterday, Daniel Jeremiah said at the 10:04 mark that he has his eye on the Eagles as an aggressive trade candidate to target a clear need at cornerback. During combine media, GM Howie Roseman expressed how it is “on him” for not prioritizing defense last season, and followed up with an honest remark about defensive line not being as much of a priority. If teams start pressing for OL and WR’s early, we might see CB’s Arnold, Mitchell and DeJean slip to where it is an easy trade to consider for Philadelphia to get a guy high on their board.

New Orleans Saints 1st Pick: Offensive Line (-270)

The price looks steep, but it is arguably short based on evidence out there that the Saints are going this direction. This all ties back to the new offensive scheme being installed by Klint Kubiak who values the outside zone rushing scheme and is heavy on play action usage. The Saints just don’t have talent upfront. Long time tackle Andrew Peat did not resign, Ryan Ramczyk has serious knee issues and Trevor Penning’s poor play has him as a bench candidate. A breakdown of analysts on NOLA posted yesterday showed 14/17 analysts picking the Saints to go offensive line with their first pick. On the NFL reporters pre draft conference call, the Saints were labeled an aggressive team due to their glaring need at tackle. Fuaga, Fashanu and Fautanu are each lined between 12.5 and 14.5 around the Saints pick. There are multiple options. Pittsburgh is in a similar situation with a new scheme install and departing veterans, and they are priced at -330. The Saints should be equal or higher.

First Round Defensive Players Drafted: Over 10.5 (-140)

Certainties (7): Turner, Arnold, Mitchell, DeJean, Murphy, Latu, Verse.

Most Likely (3): C. Robinson, McKinstry, Wiggins

Fringe (2): Newton, D. Robinson

There is so much wide receiver and offensive line hype in round one. What might end up happening is that we get later stages of the first day (pick 20 and beyond) and teams end up with high graded defensive players sitting on their boards while looking at equal wide receiver grades that are comparable to options they can take on day two because the WR class is so deep. If teams like Green Bay or Tampa Bay go best player available, and Arizona holds onto their late pick after taking a WR earlier, there may be a run on defense late to put this over. When looking at odds to go in the first round some of these non certainties are at huge numbers to be drafted. Chop (-600), Wiggins (-500), Robinson (-350), McKinstry (-300), Newton (-280). Darius Robinson is also among 13 prospects invited to be live at the draft next Thursday.

Schedule notice…

Next week is going to be busy! Three things you need to know:

1. The next newsletter will be in your inbox on Wednesday April 24th in the afternoon before draft betting markets close that evening.

2. We are planning for a Twitter spaces on Tuesday or Wednesday morning.

3. Keep an eye out for a possible community update announcement on Twitter.

Enjoy your weekend,

Adam